A House Divided

CNN has released a poll showing that not all self-identified conservatives agree with the Tea Party movement.

It's a Tea Party!

In fact, Tea Party only gets support from about half of all self-identified conservatives and Republican-leaning independents.

The analysis of the data mentions the similarity of the demographics of the Tea Party supporters to the “angry white men” of the 1994 elections.  In fact, a closer look at the movement shows that the Tea Party isn’t even really the Libertarian wing of the Republican party, but instead is a re-branding of the religious right in Constitutional drag (as evidenced by the likelihood for Tea Party supporters to identify themselves as “born-again or evangelical” in the survey).

So what does this mean?  As mentioned in the analysis, the Tea Party supporters are more interested in winning, in beating Obama, than in a candidate that matches their values, according to the poll, while non-supporters are more interested in a candidate that matches their views.  This means that a more radical candidate, like say, Governor Goodhair, will be more likely to alienate the non-Tea Party supporters than a more “moderate” candidate, like Romney, will alienate Tea Party supporters.

This dynamic is at odds with the Tea Party House caucus stance of “no compromise”, so this will indeed be an interesting primary season.


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