What A Day

No sooner than I get my site back up and running after yesterday’s blackout, but news breaks that Governor Goodhair’s zombie campaign has finally been put out of our misery (and amusement).

And the results of the Iowa caucus have changed.

And Goodhair endorses Newt.

And Romney is apparently hiding a lot of money offshore to avoid taxes.

And Newt’s ex-wife is going to talk about their divorce.

And the 4,634th primary debate is on tonight.


This is a changed landscape.

It turns out that Santorum was the actual winner of the Iowa primary.  With the advantages he has in South Carolina, this should give him a boost, just when he needs it. 

Romney, at a disadvantage in South Carolina and reeling from his corporate raider history, has lost the momentum of being a winner (because everyone loves a winner, and Republicans doubly so), and has been under direct attack from a surprisingly fierce Newt, and is now faced with a tax dodger label and the fact that he wasn’t really a winner after all.  Ouch.

The departure of Goodhair means the wingnuts’ choice has narrowed to Newt, Paul and Santorum.  I would have thought that the Perry votes would end up with Santorum after the Iowa news, but Goodhair’s endorsement of Newt may change that equation.

Newt’s attack politics and the endorsement by Goodhair could turn some voters off, but since the negative politics hasn’t dimmed Newt’s prospects so far, that isn’t too likely by my estimate.  More likely, though, is the interview with Newt’s ex-wife could send voters to Santorum or Paul.  So far, Newt’s personal ethics issues haven’t been a factor, but until now it has been something voters could avoid dealing with, and now the voters’ noses are going to be rubbed in it.

With Perry out, about 12% of the SC vote is up for grabs.  There is about a 5-7% spread between Romney and Newt.  If Newt and Santorum split those votes, Newt will narrowly beat Romney, and Santorum will take third, with about half as many votes of either of the leaders.  Paul will pull between 10-15% of the vote.

I said before that Newt, who was dropping in the polls, would have another resurgence, and here it is.  We’ll see if it lasts.

As always, take my prognostication with a grain of salt about the size of my ego.

(And, yes, I am deliberately refering to Gingrich as “Newt”, and Santorum-ing Santorum.  Allow me my fun.  Goodhair has dropped out.)


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